Market News – Fed Watch

The Fed’s pattern of rate hikes through early 2022 to mid-2023 culminated in a pause, announced at their latest meeting on March 20, 2024. Despite this pause, we’ve seen mortgage rates fluctuate. A notable instance was the decrease in rates in late December, despite the Fed’s decision to maintain its key rate during its December 13 meeting.
Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, explains that the bond market, including mortgage-backed securities, often adjusts longer-term interest rates in anticipation of future Fed policies. While the Fed plans to cut rates later this year, the exact timing remains uncertain. While the rates have remained unchanged, there’s an expectation of three rate cuts in 2024.
How the Federal Reserve Influences Borrowing Costs
The Fed sets borrowing costs for short-term loans via the federal funds rate, which affects how much banks charge each other for overnight loans. This rate, increased in 2022 and 2023 to control inflation, impacts borrowing costs across the economy, including credit card rates and home equity loans. However, fixed-rate mortgages, the most popular home loan type, are more closely aligned with the 10-year Treasury yield rather than the federal funds rate.
The Fed’s role in buying and selling debt securities also indirectly affects mortgage rates by influencing the credit flow.
What Affects Mortgage Rates?
The primary influencer of fixed-rate mortgages is the 10-year Treasury yield. A notable gap typically exists between this yield and the fixed mortgage rate. In 2023, the gap widened, leading to more expensive mortgages.
Mortgage rates are also subject to:
• Inflation: Higher inflation often leads to increased fixed mortgage rates.
• Supply and Demand: Lenders adjust rates based on their current business volume.
• The secondary mortgage market: The demand from investors for mortgage-backed securities can lower mortgage rates. Conversely, lack of investor interest might cause rates to rise.
The Fed’s Impact on Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs)
While less common than fixed-rate mortgages, ARMs are significantly influenced by the Fed’s decisions. ARMs often tie to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), which the Fed’s actions can affect. Changes in the fed funds rate lead to adjustments in SOFR, consequently impacting ARM rates.
If you are looking to make a move this spring make sure to schedule a consultation with us on our website and we can review your needs and what best fits your needs.

What Are Real Estate Transfer Taxes?

When you’re in the market to buy or sell a home, understanding all the costs involved is crucial. One of these costs, often overlooked, is the real estate transfer tax. This blog post aims to shed light on what real estate transfer taxes are, how they differ from other taxes, their costs, who typically pays for them, and where the funds go.

A real estate transfer tax, sometimes referred to as a deed transfer tax or documentary stamp tax, is a one-time fee imposed during the transfer of property ownership. This tax is usually based on the property’s sale price and can vary significantly depending on the location.

How Does It Differ From Other Taxes?
It’s important to distinguish real estate transfer taxes from other types of taxes like property taxes, estate taxes, and gift taxes. Property taxes are an ongoing expense paid annually, mainly used for public services like schools and roads. Estate taxes apply when transferring assets (which might include real estate) of a deceased person to their heirs. Gift taxes are due when property is gifted and its value exceeds a certain threshold. Unlike these, real estate transfer taxes are a one-time cost incurred during the property sale process.

Cost of Transfer Taxes
The rate of real estate transfer tax varies by state. For instance, a $500,000 property sale might attract just $50 in transfer taxes in Colorado but can be as high as $3,500 in Florida. This cost is part of the closing costs and is not deductible against income tax. However, it can increase the tax basis of the property for the buyer, which might be beneficial in reducing future capital gains taxes.

Who Pays the Transfer Taxes?
The responsibility for paying transfer taxes can differ based on the state and even the specific terms of the real estate contract. While in many places the seller pays these taxes, in others, it’s the buyer’s responsibility, or the cost is split between both parties. This can often be a point of negotiation during the sale process.

Where Do Transfer Tax Funds Go?
The funds collected from real estate transfer taxes are used by local governments for various purposes, such as infrastructure maintenance or paying public employee salaries. In some states, these taxes contribute to the state budget.

States Without Real Estate Transfer Tax
Interestingly, several states do not impose any real estate transfer tax. These include Alaska, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oregon (in most counties), Texas, Utah, and Wyoming.

Common Reasons Your Mortgage Application is Denied

Securing a mortgage in the current housing market can be challenging. With rising mortgage rates, soaring home values, and a pace of home price appreciation that far exceeds wage growth, getting a mortgage approval is far from guaranteed. This blog post aims to clarify the mortgage approval process, highlight typical obstacles, and provide advice for prospective homeowners.
The Mortgage Underwriting Process
Mortgage underwriting is where lenders assess your financial situation. This process involves a detailed examination of your financial documents – bank statements, tax documents, W-2s, pay stubs, and any additional information requested by the lender. The objective is to determine whether you qualify for a loan.
The traditional, more subjective methods of assessing creditworthiness have been replaced by automated underwriting software systems like Desktop Underwriter for Fannie Mae loans or Loan Product Advisor for Freddie Mac loans. These systems use algorithms to approve, reject, or request more information from applicants.
Top Reasons for Mortgage Application Denial
1. Credit Issues
Your credit score is a crucial factor in the mortgage process. While higher scores (above 740) often get the best rates, you can still qualify for certain mortgages with lower scores. It’s essential to check your credit score, correct any errors, and maintain your score during the mortgage application process.
2. Income Shortfalls
Lenders look at your debt-to-income (DTI) ratio to determine if you can handle an additional loan. A DTI ratio above 43% is typically undesirable, with 36% being more favorable. If you have substantial debts, such as student or car loans, it’s advisable to reduce these before applying for a mortgage. Self-employed individuals might face extra challenges due to irregular income or the way tax write-offs impact reported income.
3. High Loan-to-Value (LTV) Ratio
A high LTV ratio, which compares the loan amount to the property’s value, can be a red flag for lenders. A larger down payment, resulting in a lower LTV ratio, can improve your loan approval chances.
4. Financing Challenges for Certain Properties
Some properties, like condos or manufactured homes, can be more difficult to finance. Structural issues or other property-related concerns can also hinder loan approval.
5. Recent Financial Instability
Financial stability is important to lenders. Recent changes in your job, a history of sporadic employment, or unusual banking activity can impact your loan approval.
What to Do If Your Application is Denied
If your mortgage application is denied, use our qualifier wizard on our website and schedule a consultation. Whether it’s addressing credit issues, lowering your DTI or LTV ratios, choosing the right type of property, or ensuring financial stability we can do a deep dive and see what best fits your needs!

A Guide to 3% Mortgages

In 2024, new homeowners are seeing mortgage interest rates have more than doubled since 2021, making the dream of home ownership with the traditional down payment of 20% seem like a bridge that is very far.
However, there are many options and programs that don’t require 20% down. Some loan programs now allow for a much lower down payment, requiring as little as 3 percent in cash. This development significantly eases the burden for homebuyers, especially first-timers.
Understanding 3 Percent Down Mortgage Options
These low down payment mortgages are often part of special programs, typically targeting first-time homebuyers or those who haven’t owned a home in the recent past. Here’s a closer look at these options:
1. Conventional 97
• Backed By: Fannie Mae
• Key Features: Only 3% down required; down payment can be a gift, grant, or other assistance.
• Qualifications:
• Must be a first-time homebuyer or not have owned a home in the past three years.
• Homebuyer education course required for all first-time buyers.
• Minimum credit score of 620.
• The home must be a primary residence.
• Conforms to loan limits (e.g., $766,550 for a one-unit property in most areas).
• Additional Info: Requires private mortgage insurance (PMI) until 20% equity is reached.
2. Fannie Mae’s HomeReady Program
• For: A wider range of properties, including multi-family units.
• Qualifications:
• Open to those who haven’t owned a primary residence in the past three years.
• Credit score minimum of 620.
• Income cannot exceed 80% of the area’s median income.
• At least one unit must be the owner’s primary residence.
• Unique Feature: Counts rental income towards income requirements; down payment can be entirely from gifts or assistance.
3. Freddie Mac’s HomePossible Program
• Distinctive Feature: Allows non-occupying co-borrowers to contribute to the down payment.
• Qualifications:
• Homeownership education for first-time buyers.
• Credit score of 660 or above.
• Income limits apply.
• Must live in the home as a primary residence.
• Additional Info: PMI required until 20% equity is achieved.
4. HomeOne by Freddie Mac
• Target Audience: First-time homebuyers and those looking for cash-out refinances.
• Qualifications:
• At least one applicant must be a first-time homebuyer.
• Usable credit score required.
• Property must be a single-unit primary residence.
• No Restrictions: No income or geographical limitations.
Other Low-Down Payment Options
• FHA Loans: Minimum 3.5% down. Available to a broader audience, including those with lower credit scores.
• USDA and VA Loans: No down payment required, specific to rural area borrowers (USDA) and military personnel (VA).
The path to homeownership in 2024, despite the daunting landscape of high interest rates and challenging savings goals, is made smoother with these innovative low down payment mortgage options. Whether you’re a first-time homebuyer or someone looking to re-enter the housing market, these programs offer a ray of hope and an opportunity to achieve the dream of owning a home. Fill out our easy pre-qualifier on our website and we can see what program best fits your needs!

Year-end Financial Checklist

As 2023 comes to end its a good idea to do a year end financial checkup.
1. Review your budget and savings plan Analyze your spending and saving for the year. Your savings might not have gone to plan this year and that’s ok – focus on replenishing your emergency fund first if needed and recalibrate plan for 2023 if needed.
2. Maximize Retirement Plan Contributions If you participate in a 401k make sure you maximize contributions before the December 31 deadline, you have until April for Roth contributions
3. Review Your Insurance Coverage Check your insurance coverage in many parts of the country housing prices went up, make sure you home is covered under current market prices. Also check your liability coverage and consider getting an umbrella liability policy that covers all your assets, you can get a million dollar policy for a few hundred dollars a year!
4. Health Savings Account Make sure you contribute to your health savings account (if needed) as there are great tax benefits. Also check to see if you need to reimburse yourself from the account for out of pocket payments you made during the year!
5. Charitable Contributions Finally remember to give if you can! Even if you don’t itemize your returns you can still deduct up to $300 for charitable contributions!

Closing Costs Vs Prepaids

Today we are going to cover two terms we often hear used in the home buying process that are sometimes used interchangeably but there are some differences. So we will review “closing costs” and “predpaids” and what makes them different.

The Basics of Prepaids in Home Buying

Prepaids are the advance payments a homebuyer makes to cover specific future expenses before they come due. Typical examples include homeowners insurance premiums and property taxes.

While they are paid at closing, they don’t go directly to the vendor or provider. Instead, your lender will keep these funds in an escrow account. Over time, the lender will distribute payments from this account as required.

Here’s a closer look at standard prepaids:

Mortgage Interest: This is applicable when you close on any day other than the first of the month. The prepaid interest covers the days from closing to the end of that month and is held in escrow for your first mortgage payment. A savvy tip? Closing near the end of the month might save you some money.
Homeowners Insurance: Lenders usually require six to 12 months of homeowners insurance premiums at closing. The lender will then disburse this to your insurance provider monthly.
Property Taxes: Lenders estimate the property taxes you’ll owe and generally request two months of these taxes upfront. From your escrow, they will then forward these payments to your local government.
Initial Escrow Deposit: This deposit often includes two months each of homeowners insurance and property taxes. It ensures your escrow account has a healthy buffer for future bills.
For clarity, these prepaids are detailed in the closing disclosure document provided by your lender, typically three days before closing. You’ll find them on Page 2, Section F.

Deciphering Closing Costs

Closing costs, on the other hand, are the one-time fees paid directly to various parties involved in processing your mortgage. These can be to your lender (like application fees) or third parties (like home inspection fees).

Often, sellers might cover some of these costs as a gesture or part of the sale agreement. These are called seller concessions. However, it’s essential to remember that the buyer always foots the bill for prepaids.

Here’s a snapshot of frequent closing costs:

Loan-related fees: For processing and originating the mortgage.
Appraisal and Inspection fees: To assess the value and condition of the property.
Title-related fees: To ensure the property title is clean and transferable.
Attorney fees: For legal oversight and ensuring all documentation is in order.
Prepaids vs. Closing Costs: The Breakdown

In conclusion, while both prepaids and closing costs are payable at the purchase’s closure, they serve different purposes. Closing costs are direct payments for services rendered, whereas prepaids are essentially a buffer for future homeownership expenses, managed by your lender. Of course, we will guide you through all this when you are getting ready for closing. If you are looking to purchase now and want to review your options go to our website and complete our 60 second purchase analysis.

Home Closing: 5 Top Don’ts Before the Big Day

A lot of people don’t realize that it’s a good idea to watch your financial P’s and Q’s before closing your mortgage. Here are five common mistakes to watch out for to avoid any closing crises.

1. Making a big purchase, including furniture
If you’re about to close on a house, it’s not the best time to get a new car, boat or other expensive item. Even furniture or appliances — basically anything you might pay for in installments — is best to delay until after your mortgage is finalized.
Depending on your credit score and history, these transactions can lower your score, which can impact the interest rate and loan amount you receive. This could result in a higher interest rate for the next 15 or 30 years, or even having to come up with a larger down payment.
Bottom line: Wait to purchase a big-ticket item, because “this can ruin their chances of staying qualified for a loan,” says Patricia Martinez-Alvidrez, business development officer for Stewart Title in El Paso, Texas.
2. Opening a new line of credit
It’s not just big purchases that can alter your credit score. Opening a new credit card or closing an existing one can affect your standing, too. In the runup to your mortgage closing, lenders make an assessment of the credit risk they are taking on and go through several steps to assess that risk for each loan applicant.It’s especially important to protect your credit score if it’s low enough that you’re on the margins of qualifying for a mortgage at the start of the process. Any changes in that case can work against you and might make it impossible to finalize the loan.
3. Switching or quitting your job
Another major mistake to make when you’re about to close on a home purchase is changing jobs. This is because mortgage lenders examine your employment history for consistency, and providing additional documentation on employment to a lender can delay the closing.
If you have any control over your job situation, it’s best to stay put until after you close. A borrower who quits their current job might have to wait a couple of weeks before they can attempt to close again.
4. Disrupting the timeline
Closing on a mortgage is time-sensitive. Even if you’ve locked in your rate, that only guarantees things for so long. It’s important to keep on top of the schedule and make sure all of your paperwork is submitted on time. Otherwise, you risk losing the terms you agreed to and could have to start the process over again.
5. Taking out a personal loan
If you get a personal loan or co-sign a loan for someone else, you could also face hiccups before getting to the closing table. In some instances, the lender might turn you down for a loan altogether even if you were previously preapproved.
It depends on how your credit score and debt-to-income (DTI) ratio is impacted. A good DTI, in particular, is a critical factor in mortgage approvals. Lenders consider two types of DTIs:
Front-end DTI: Your monthly mortgage payment, including principal, interest, taxes, insurance and association fees divided by your monthly income
Back-end DTI: The sum of all your monthly debt payments divided by your monthly income
Depending on the amount of the loan payment, your back-end DTI could increase to a percentage that the lender is unwilling to accept. If your credit score is right above the minimum to qualify for a mortgage, a hard inquiry that results from applying for a personal loan could drop it to a point that makes you ineligible. Either way, there’s a chance you’ll be forced to walk away from the deal.

It’s not always smooth sailing when going from the mortgage application process to the closing table. However, there are actions you can steer clear of to minimize roadblocks and ensure your loan closes on time. You also should review your credit report, scores and identify ways to optimize your financial health to give yourself the best chance at securing a mortgage with competitive terms. And definitely give us a call if you’re in your closing and not sure 🙂

Gift To Home: Helping Your Children With The Downpayment

Home ownership is part of the American dream and often thought of as a step towards financial stability. For parents, the thought of helping their child set foot on this path can be both appealing and daunting. Here’s an in-depth look at why and how parents can provide that initial boost.

Why Consider Gifting a Down Payment?
In 2022, the National Association of Realtors revealed an intriguing statistic: 22% of first-time homebuyers were aided by gift funds from family or friends. This underscores the trend of families stepping in to aid the next generation in achieving their homeownership dreams.

In today’s environment, skyrocketing rents, expensive homes, and the looming shadow of student debt make saving for a down payment increasingly challenging for many young people. A down payment gift is a direct way to benefit the child without the long-term obligations and risks associated with co-signing.

Things to Consider Before Gifting
1. Your Financial Health: Before jumping in, it’s crucial to analyze your financial situation. Gifting shouldn’t jeopardize your retirement plans or other financial goals.

2. Your Child’s Financial Savvy: Ensure that your child has the financial knowledge and responsibility to manage homeownership.

3. Tax Implications: Thankfully, gifting for down payments often has fewer tax implications. For 2023, parents can gift up to $34,000 to their child without triggering the gift tax.

The How-To of Down Payment Gifting
1. Assess Your Financial Situation: Reflect on what you can afford without affecting your financial health adversely. As Geller advises, always discuss with your child, understand their finances, and know their repayment strategy.

2. Time the Gift Right: Transfer the gift at least two months before your child’s mortgage application. This “seasoning” period ensures the funds are seen as part of your child’s legitimate assets.

3. Draft a Gift Letter: This letter, addressed to the lender, confirms the nature of the gift. It should detail the amount, purpose, and assure that repayment isn’t expected.

Alternative Ways to Assist
1. Direct Home Purchase: Consider buying the home and having your child repay you. But always consult a real estate attorney before embarking on such agreements.

2. Co-signing or Becoming a Co-borrower: These are valid options but come with their own sets of responsibilities and risks. For instance, as a co-signer, you don’t have ownership, but you are liable for payments if your child defaults.

3. Home Search Assistance: Being a pillar of support during their home search can make the process smoother for your child.

4. Renting Options: Letting your child live with you at discounted rates or for free can help them accumulate savings faster.

In conclusion, gifting a down payment can be a significant step towards ensuring your child’s financial future. You can schedule a meeting with us on our website and we can review your situation and what best makes sense for you. If done right, it can be a win-win situation, paving the way for the next generation’s financial success.

Mortgage Down Payment Assistance

The dream of owning a home is a cherished one for many individuals and families across the United States. However, the soaring median existing-home price of around $400,000 can often make it seem like an unattainable goal, especially when faced with the prospect of a substantial down payment. Traditional mortgage loans typically require a 20 percent down payment, equating to a significant sum, but there is good news – down payment assistance (DPA) programs exist to help prospective homeowners bridge the financial gap. In this blog post, we will explore what DPA programs are, how they work, and the steps to access this valuable assistance.

What is a Down Payment Assistance (DPA) Program?

Down payment assistance programs are financial tools designed to provide aspiring homebuyers with the necessary funds to contribute towards the purchase of a home. In addition to assisting with down payments, some programs also extend their support to cover closing costs, which can amount to approximately 2 percent to 5 percent of the loan principal. This additional help can be particularly beneficial for individuals who have allocated their savings primarily for a down payment.

DPA programs are available across the country, with the majority of options offered at the local level through state, county, and city government initiatives. These programs can take the form of loans, grants, or matched savings, each with its unique set of eligibility criteria and repayment terms.

Down Payment Assistance Eligibility Requirements

While eligibility criteria may vary among different DPA programs, the vast majority of assistance is aimed at first-time homebuyers. However, “first-timer” does not exclusively refer to someone purchasing their first home; it can also encompass individuals who have not owned a home in the last three years. Additionally, many programs exclude owners of rental or investment properties, emphasizing that the home should be your primary residence. Some programs may permit the purchase of duplexes or small multi-family properties if you intend to reside in one of the units.

Types of Down Payment Assistance Loans and Programs

Grants: Grants are a type of DPA that offers a one-time cash sum, often as a no-interest second loan. These funds can be used to cover part or all of the down payment or closing costs. The best part is that grants do not need to be repaid and are typically tailored for low- or moderate-income borrowers. Various grant programs are accessible through banks and state and local governments.
Forgivable Loans: Forgivable loans function like loans but can effectively become grants if certain conditions are met. Typically, this type of loan is forgiven after a specific period, provided that you continue to own the home and stay current on your mortgage payments. If you sell your home or move before the specified period, you may be required to repay a portion of the funds. Forgivable loans are often administered through state housing finance agencies.
Low-Interest Loans: Low-interest loans operate as second mortgages with interest rates below market rates. Unlike grants or forgivable loans, these loans must be repaid, usually over a few years. This means that you will have additional monthly payments in addition to your regular mortgage. You can find low-interest loans through various mortgage lenders.
Deferred-Payment Loans: Deferred-payment loans typically do not accrue interest, and you are only responsible for repaying the principal amount borrowed. However, these loans are not forgiven and must be repaid in full when you sell your home or refinance your mortgage. State and local homebuyer assistance programs often offer deferred-payment loans.
Individual Development Accounts (IDAs): IDAs, also known as matched-savings accounts, are special savings accounts where your contributions are matched by either private or public funding sources. These programs typically have income caps and employment requirements, and participants often need to complete financial literacy training. IDAs are usually available at the state level or through private nonprofits and can be used for down payments and closing costs.
Lender-Specific Down Payment Assistance Programs: Some mortgage lenders offer their own DPA programs. For example, Chase offers assistance ranging from $2,500 to $5,000 in many states, which can be used for closing costs and down payment needs. Eligibility for these programs may have specific requirements, such as obtaining a 30-year fixed-rate loan, living in the home as your primary residence, and attending a homebuyer education course.
How to Access Down Payment Assistance

Accessing DPA programs often involves exploring local resources and organizations. Here are some avenues to consider:

State Housing Finance Authority: Many state housing finance authorities (HFAs) offer homebuying assistance and education programs. Check with your state’s HFA for information on available DPA programs.
City and County Government Programs: Numerous counties and cities offer DPA programs as part of their efforts to promote homeownership, especially for first-time buyers. Visit your municipality’s website or consult your loan officer to learn more about local DPA programs in your area.
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD): HUD provides a wealth of information on local homebuying programs by state. Each state also has HUD-approved counselors who can guide you through the homebuying process and help you find financial assistance options.
Conclusion

Owning a home remains a significant milestone for many individuals and families, and down payment assistance programs play a crucial role in turning this dream into a reality. With various types of assistance available, aspiring homeowners can find a program that suits their unique financial situation and eligibility criteria. By exploring local and state resources and leveraging the support provided by DPA programs, more people can achieve the goal of homeownership, even in a challenging real estate market.

Preparing Your Home For A Storm

As we’ve seen large storms hit both coasts recently, it’s a good idea to use the old Boy Scout motto and “be prepared.” We are going to review general steps to take to prepare for something we of course never happens. Natural disasters, from hurricanes to earthquakes, wield a devastating power that leaves homeowners and entire communities grappling with significant property damage and high repair costs.

The Financial Impact of Natural Disasters on Homes
In 2022, the Insurance Information Institute documented nearly $100 billion in insured losses stemming from natural disasters. Here’s a breakdown of the data:

Severe storms: These accounted for over $29 billion.
Earthquakes: About $14.7 billion per year, as per a joint study between the USGS and FEMA.
Floods: 15 instances in 2022 led to $3.3 billion in losses.
Wildfires: Resulting in a staggering $8.9 billion from 26 separate events.
Hurricanes: Three events led to a total loss of $53.2 billion.
Winter storms: Produced $4.1 billion in damages from 13 occurrences.
How Can Homeowners Prepare?
1. Reinforce Vulnerable Areas
Install wind-resistant doors and storm-proof shutters.
Use plywood to board up windows and doors when a storm approaches.
2. Know Your Utilities
Identify where water, gas, and electrical lines are and know how to shut them off.
3. Water Diversion
Use sandbags around entryways and flood-prone zones.
4. Secure Loose Items
Ensure outdoor furniture is tied down.
Move grills, tools, toys, and other items inside.
5. Tree Maintenance
Trim trees regularly to prevent overhanging branches from causing damage.
6. Furniture Safety
In earthquake-prone areas, attach heavy furniture to walls.
7. Landscaping Smartly
Choose fire-retardant plants like Rockrose and aloe, and avoid flammable trees like pines.
8. Guard Against Pipe Bursts
Wrap vulnerable pipes to protect them during extreme cold.
9. Have an Emergency Plan
Assemble an emergency kit with food, water, medications, chargers, and other necessities.
Keep both digital and physical copies of important documents, including evacuation routes and insurance policies.
What Does Home Insurance Typically Cover?
A standard homeowner’s insurance policy covers damage due to:

Thunderstorms
Hurricanes
Tornados
Wildfires
Blizzards
However, it’s essential to note that standard policies usually exclude flood or earthquake damage. Those living in vulnerable zones should consider supplemental policies to stay covered.

In conclusion, while the unpredictable force of nature cannot be avoided, homeowners can adopt a proactive stance. By understanding your insurance policy and taking preventive measures, you can shield yourself from the worst financial aftershocks of natural disasters.